Safeguarding the quantum computing supply chain

July 17, 2025

The race to safeguard quantum computing supply chains is on. By leveraging open-source intelligence and verified datasets, governments can monitor quantum players more effectively.

One senior U.S. government official calls it “the Manhattan Project” of our time.

The race to dominate and secure quantum computing is on. Leveraging its advanced computational power beyond the limits of classical systems, quantum computing has the potential to drive innovation and solve complex routing, resource allocation, and scheduling problems exponentially faster across a wide range of industries and scientific disciplines—unlocking immense opportunities, as well as unprecedented efficiency and cost savings.

But, beyond opportunity, quantum computing’s ascent to the mainstream brings new challenges that could fundamentally put the balance of power and global security at risk. As a result, governments are locked in a race against time to fortify quantum-related supply chains. Among the chief concerns are how to implement export controls and conduct sensitive technology transfers, as well as broader industrial security issues centered on advanced computer chips and semiconductor components. In short, the quantum computing race compares to only a select number of geopolitical challenges in living memory.

Quantum computing: opportunity abounds

Such risks have emerged due to the boundless opportunities that this computing evolution presents. Quantum computing offers transformative potential across a wide range of applications. In industries like logistics and supply chain optimization, its ability to solve complex routing, resource allocation, and scheduling problems exponentially faster than classical computing could unlock unprecedented efficiency. Companies could dynamically adjust operations in real time, reduce waste, and optimize global trade networks in ways that were previously impossible.

Of course, quantum computing’s broader potential spans virtually every field—from artificial intelligence, materials science, and cryptography to complex system modeling. In finance, quantum systems promise to augment portfolio management and risk assessment. By analyzing vast datasets and modeling intricate financial systems, quantum-powered tools could enhance decision-making, uncover hidden patterns, and mitigate risks across global markets.

The impact for economic competition, power, and security

Much like the Manhattan Project, emerging technologies with immense power bring equally significant risks. Chief among them is their ability to undermine classical encryption protocols that currently secure global communications, financial transactions, and critical infrastructure. As one U.S. official noted at a recent event which Moody’s leaders attended: “Quantum computers can break all of our codes in a nanosecond.”

The quantum race is not merely about building the fastest computers; it is a competition to control the future rules of encryption, data technology, and digital sovereignty. As a result, global adversaries are integrating quantum development into state-led initiatives to bolster national and economic power. To counter this threat, nations are aggressively rethinking how to track the entire quantum ecosystem: monitoring who is building quantum platforms, controlling key patents, identifying the origins of critical components, and examining gaps in cross-border research that could expose vulnerabilities.

Several nations are ramping up their defenses. The United Kingdom and Germany, for instance, are accelerating oversight of quantum technology. A comprehensive assessment by the RAND Corporation highlights the urgency of these efforts. Its report on the quantum supply chain describes a system that is opaque, fragmented, and poorly understood, involving actors ranging from photonic chip developers to cryogenic hardware manufacturers. Many of these contributors are startups, academic labs, or multinationals with diffuse ownership structures, making them difficult to monitor under traditional national security frameworks.

This fragmented ecosystem poses additional risks to intellectual property (IP) security. As quantum technology advances rapidly alongside developments in artificial intelligence, the landscape becomes a magnet for state-sponsored hacking, supply chain contamination, and IP theft. Protecting patents, licensing agreements, and ownership structures is crucial to safeguarding innovation from adversaries.

Safeguarding quantum supply chains: what can be done?

The high-octane innovation demands rigorous oversight—combining open-source intelligence, verified datasets, and deep ownership visibility of quantum players. To stay ahead of potential threats to quantum supply chains, nations should focus on four critical areas:

Technology development players: Gain visibility into entities receiving research and development funding, including partnerships between academia and the private sector.
Supply chain mapping: Illuminate vendor relationships, identify the national origins of key components, and analyze geographic concentrations of risk.
IP and patent surveillance: Monitor high-risk patent clusters, track ownership structures, and oversee cross-border licensing agreements to prevent the leakage of sensitive innovations.
Catastrophe modeling: Prepare for the infrastructure demands of quantum and AI technologies. For example, Moody’s recently estimated that $2 trillion in computer server infrastructure will be required in the coming years, emphasizing the need to scrutinize facility locations for climate and geopolitical risks.[1]

Like the Manhattan Project, which culminated in the world’s first nuclear weapon, quantum superiority will depend on sustained and strategic collaboration between government, industry, and science. Moody’s solutions complement this global race to provide government entities visibility into technology, resources, and risk intelligence on entities from both allied states and adversaries—helping them to gain a clearer perspective on an evolving operational landscape.

Learn more about Moody’s Maxsight™ Investigations platform.

Get in touch with our team today.